A robust Theory of Change (ToC) does more than map a series of activities and intended outcomes—it reveals the deeper logic of how and why these efforts will lead to broader, long-term goals. By making assumptions explicit and validating them through available evidence, organizations create a shared framework that supports effective decision-making and continuous learning.

I wanted to revisit Frans Leeuw’s (2003) three approaches to uncovering underlying program theories and translate his insights into practical steps you can take to ensure your ToC is rooted in evidence and creates buy-in amongst implementers.

Why a Theory of Change Matters

Developing a ToC goes beyond drawing a chain of activities and outcomes. It helps you clarify the mechanisms that connect your day-to-day work to the lasting impact you hope to see. By making assumptions explicit and checking them against research and field evidence, you create a blueprint that your team and stakeholders can rally around—one that guides better decision-making and supports ongoing adaptation.

Core Steps for a Solid ToC

1. Gather Relevant Information
   Begin with a thorough scan of project documents, research studies, and existing frameworks. Look for strategies that are proven to work in similar contexts, and note any knowledge gaps you need to fill.
2. Bring Together Your Team and Stakeholders
   Facilitate workshops or online meetings where participants refine and reach consensus on outcomes, strategies, and assumptions. This collaborative process ensures each person understands how and why the ToC is supposed to work.
3. Synthesize Into a Clear Visual and Narrative
   Transform the insights you’ve collected into a logical diagram and concise write-up that outline how your project activities lead to outputs, outcomes, and impacts. Focus on clarity: anyone new to your project should be able to look at your ToC and quickly grasp the change process.
4. Validate and Adapt as Needed
   Present the draft ToC to implementers, partners, and beneficiaries. Gather feedback, test assumptions, and revise when new data emerges or unexpected challenges arise. A ToC should remain a living document that reflects evolving realities.

Leeuw’s Three Approaches to Reconstruct Program Theories

According to Frans Leeuw (2003), much of a program’s logic remains implicit until deliberately unpacked. He outlines three methods to surface these hidden assumptions:

Policy-Scientific Approach
• Review documents and conduct interviews to identify “if–then” statements or other causal links.
• Compare these assumptions to established research to confirm or challenge them.

Strategic Assessment Approach
• Encourage stakeholders to list and rank assumptions by importance and certainty.
• Host group discussions or workshops to address disagreements and move toward consensus.

Elicitation Approach
• Observe how people respond under real-world conditions or in high-pressure moments.
• Use open-ended “trigger” questions to uncover the nuanced, often unspoken logic that guides decision-making.

Making It Work in Practice: Three Key Steps

Step 1: Gather and Interpret Project Information
Begin by reviewing project proposals, existing frameworks, reports, and best-practice studies.

These documents typically include strategic statements—such as your program’s goals, activities, and intended targets—that form the building blocks of your ToC.

Look for statements that can be converted into “if–then” propositions (e.g., “If we train community leaders, then awareness of health services will rise”).

This is where Leeuw’s Policy-Scientific and Elicitation approaches come in. You’ll compare any assumptions to relevant research findings while also interviewing team members using open-ended questions, uncovering logic that might not appear in official documents.

Step 2: Consolidate the ToC with Technical Teams
Next, bring your technical and operational staff together, whether in face-to-face workshops or virtual sessions.

Discuss your findings, validate the assumptions, and explore how each part of the project connects to your ultimate goals. Here is where Leeuw’s Strategic Assessment (Group) approach excels.

Ask smaller groups to identify and rank assumptions crucial to success, then openly debate what might go right (or wrong) and how certain these assumptions are. Combining documentary analysis with real-time stakeholder dialogue leads to stronger buy-in and a richer understanding of the program logic.

Step 3: Synthesize a Visual and Narrative Explanation (and Validate Over Time)
Now turn your consolidated assumptions into a clear visual representation—a simple diagram that traces how inputs and activities produce outputs, outcomes, and eventually impact.

Accompany this with a concise narrative explaining your logic. Who is responsible for each action? Which assumptions are most critical to achieving success? Remember that a Theory of Change is never a one-and-done exercise.

Periodically revisit your ToC as you gather new data or face unexpected challenges. If feedback reveals missing steps or flawed assumptions, invite your team back to the table to adjust the model. By doing so, your ToC becomes a living document that evolves as real-world conditions shift.

Why It’s Worth the Effort

Anchoring your Theory of Change in available evidence, refining it through collective discussion, and presenting it in a clear format transforms it from a mere conceptual tool into a roadmap for meaningful learning and adaptation. A well-developed, well-maintained ToC ensures everyone sees how everyday tasks contribute to bigger goals—helping your program stay responsive, purposeful, and effective in achieving real, measurable impact.

Works Cited

Leeuw, F. L. (2003). Reconstructing Program Theories: Methods Available and Problems to Be Solved. American Journal of Evaluation, 24(1), 5–20.